Planning4care 2.0 has now launched, providing a range of powerful future planning scenarios, the latest demographic projections and social care data from the National Adult Social Care Intelligence System (NASCIS), and a new easy-to-use web interface. The major changes to the tool for version 2.0 include:

• New futures scenarios including impact of successful local preventative initiatives, shift from residential to community care, increases in Healthy Life Expectancy, and varying future population projection scenarios
• Improved visualisation for scenarios and comparator area data
• Incorporating the new NASCIS annual return data on local provision and costs
• Revised summary report including impact of the latest data, and analysis of the different scenarios for your area

To find out more details, including how to subscribe to Planning4care, visit the Planning4care website, read the Blog, download an information pack, or email/ telephone us on info@planning4care.org.uk / 01273 201 316.

This is important stuff, but pity the intelligence teams who have to understand performance data for each and all of these areas, monitor progress for local priority neighbourhoods, and do Total Place-style analysis that combines spending and service data from service organisations covering different areas.

To help central and local analysis teams understand performance for complex geographies, OCSI are working with Communities and Local Government, Work and Pensions, and the Office for National Statistics. As part of this project we’ll be developing tools to help researchers model data to small areas, understand how to develop robust data for functional economic areas (a key component of local economic assessments), and developing National Indicator data for the Thames Gateway and other areas. We’ll be posting more about our work on the project as it develops, but if you’re interested then contact us.

Related work:

• OCSI (2010), How can the State of the Cities Database be more useful? Recommendations for CLG based on user consultation
• OCSI (2010), Technical feasibility for improving the State of the Cities Database, report for CLG 

By far the bulk of annual spend (ranging up to £130K) were staff costs, and system managers identified that the main area for potential saving was in reducing the time spent obtaining and loading data. OCSI have been working with several local information system teams to save time spent in inputting data and setting-up performance reports and needs assessments (for local economic assessment, joint strategic needs assessment and other work). The Data and Report Packs load straight into standard local information systems including InstantAtlas, providing a rich range of indicators and high quality report outputs. To find out more, see our pages on the Data and Report Packs, or contact us.

Key findings from the “Understanding the value and benefits of establishing a local information system” research include:

• Local information systems generate an overall benefit:
  • A conservative estimate of £140-210 value for an average user /year (time saved in obtaining information from other sources), giving a breakeven point of roughly 300-400 users per year for a system with average running costs. Most systems have many more users than this.
  • Many examples of information underpinning successful funding bids by local organisations
  • Using information well in decision making leads to better local public services, with those authorities demonstrating good information use more likely to be strongly performing (Audit Commission ‘In the know’ report), with 94% of LAs saying use of information has become an increasing strategic priority (Audit Commission ‘Is there something I should know?’ report)
• Where systems can make savings:
  • Main suggestions focused on decreasing time to input data
  • Off-the-shelf systems significantly cheaper than bespoke.
• Key recommendations for local information systems teams
  • Identify the value of your system: Collect detailed information about users and time spent on the site (and use the Local information systems value-assessment tool)
  • System managers should be encouraged and supported to adopt and share good practice from the Open Data programme, including the ONS Neighbourhood Statistics Data Exchange
  • Local information systems, performance management and finance systems should adopt common interoperability standards to make integration easier within, and across, partner organisations.

Relevant links:

• Foley et al (2010), Understanding the value and benefits of establishing and running a local information system.
• Foley et al (2007), Local Information Systems: A review of their role, characteristics and benefits.
• OCSI (2009), Supporting local information and research: Understanding demand and improving capacity

£20-25k + performance-related bonus

Interested in using your research skills to make a difference in the real world? We are looking for a quantitative researcher to join our expanding consultancy, helping public sector organisations effectively plan, target and evaluate programmes.

OCSI works with public sector agencies to improve their evidence-base for decision-making. In current projects we’re identifying rural deprivation issues; highlighting the impact of the recession in local areas; and improving data on cities. See www.ocsi.co.uk for more information about us and our work.

How to apply

Closing date for applications is Feb 28^th 2010. Please email a CV and covering letter (not more than 600 words) to Graham Lally, Graham.Lally@ocsi.co.uk.

Job description

• Job title: Quantitative researcher / analyst (full time)
• Salary: £20-25k + performance-related bonus
• Location: Central Brighton, with occasional travel to client meetings
• Responsible to: Tom Smith, OCSI Director
• Start date: ASAP

You will carry out quantitative research work for OCSI, working on internal and external projects:

• Developing, analysing and interpreting indicators on the economy and social exclusion
• Working with the OCSI team on external consultancy projects

About you

Essential and specific skills:

• Excellent quantitative research skills, and be comfortable analysing data in STATA, SPSS, Microsoft Excel and/ or other standard packages
• BSc (or higher) in subject with substantial quantitative research element
• Good knowledge of statistics, including regression techniques
• Keen contributor to team-work meetings, and also be able to work alone when required
• Good written skills, and be able to communicate confidently with clients as well as the OCSI team
• Well organised to meet tight deadlines, and be able to learn fast on challenging projects.
• Adept at using standard PC and internet applications

Desirable skills and experience:

• Relevant research or work experience relating to the public sector
• Experience with large-scale survey datasets, and understanding of sampling and missing data issues
• Experience using administrative datasets to understand economic and social issues, and measure change over time
• Software: SQL, Access, Powerpoint

Additional information

• Probationary period: All appointments are subject to a 6-month probationary period
• Hours: OCSI researchers work a standard 37.5 hour week (excluding lunch). We embrace flexible working practices.
• Leave: 30 days annual leave plus bank holidays
• Notice period: You are required to give two months notice. We will give you two months notice.

OCSI is an Equal Opportunities employer - we will employ the best person for the job regardless of gender, age, disability, ethnicity or religion.

Applicants must have the legal right to work in Britain. Smoking in OCSI is not permitted.

Other benefits:

• Employer matched contribution pension
• Flexible working hours
• Annual performance-related bonus
• Season ticket and bicycle purchase loans
• Staff development fund

• Unemployment claimant data for September 2009: The figures include data on the number and proportion of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance, the ratio of claimants to available jobs, and the 12-monthly changes in the number and proportion of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance
• Job Centre vacancies for September 2009
• House sales data for 2nd quarter of 2009: Median house prices and number of property transactions.

For full statistics, see the Local Economic Monitor (you can sign-in or register here), and there’s analysis of the most recent economic data on our Blog.

The September 2009 data showed that the total number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) across England fell by 4,700 compared with August 2009. Although only a small fall - those 4,700 people represent less than half a percent of the 1.3 million people now receiving unemployment benefit - this is more good news to add to the relatively small increases over the last six months. The three-month June-Sept increase of 2.4% and six-month March-Sept increase of 4.4% are certainly a good deal better than the 62% increase over the six-months from Sept 2008-March 2009.

There are other causes for optimism. The ILO unemployment estimates published yesterday showed a fall in the June-July monthly estimates, and a less-than-expected-rise in the June-August quarterly data. And Google has declared the worst of the recession is over, with net revenue up 7% and profits up 27% over the third quarter. However, there is a long way to go. Youth and long-term unemployment continue to rise, and across England, there are still two-thirds more people getting unemployment benefit than 12 months ago.

At regional and local level, the picture is also looking more positive. Data on the Local Economic Monitor identifies that 223 of the 326 Local Authorities in England recorded a decrease in the number of JSA claimants over the most recent period, with falls across most of the regions.

At regional level, only London and the West Midlands recorded a rise in claimant numbers over the period, see figure. Unemployment rates are particularly high in the West Midlands: four of the six local authorities with the highest rates of unemployment in England are now in the Greater Birmingham/Black country area. Based on the September 2009 figures, Wolverhampton has the highest proportion of people receiving JSA, with 8.2% of the working age population in receipt of JSA. Birmingham (8.2%), Sandwell (7.9%) and Walsall (7.4%) are also among the top six areas in England with the highest proportion of adults claiming JSA. The unemployment rate has risen significantly in these areas, with an additional 1,700 JSA claimants recorded in these four areas in the last month alone.

For further information and the latest data, see the Local Economic Monitor (you can sign-in or register here).

Stefan Noble and Tom Smith (OCSI).

Good data visualisation can help users explore and understand the patterns and trends in data, and also communicate that understanding to others to help them make robust decisions based on the data being presented. This project supports public sector researchers improve the way that they visualise data, by providing good practice examples and case studies, practical and step-by-step guides on how to visualise data, and links to more detailed resources.

The website is www.improving-visualisation.org/ , with a gallery of visualisation examples (currently 220 examples) at http://www.improving-visualisation.org/visuals, and case studies and guides at www.improving-visualisation.org/case-studies/.

We’ll keep updating the project site with examples and case studies over time, so please get in touch with any comments.

“The majority of nationally provided data sets for local development are signposted on data4nr.net (data for neighbourhoods and regeneration) and these are updated as new sources become available”

Local economic assessments Draft statutory guidance, page 13
http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/communities/localeconomicassessmentduty

Data4nr identifies and signposts the datasets available for targeting, monitoring, priority setting and performance management at neighbourhood and local authority level, and is updated fortnightly with new and revised datasets. See www.data4nr.net for details, and sign-up for email updates at www.data4nr.net/register/.

I’ve been involved in the study as part of the external advisory group, and was impressed by the effort put in by the Commission team to develop practical tools for authorities to improve their information use for making decisions.  In this area, there are lots of tools aimed at improving researcher skills, but what’s often ignored or glossed-over is that evidence-based decision-making needs better skills from both researchers and decision-makers (an issue we highlighted in our work for Communities and Local Government on how to support local research). So it is great to see the emphasis by the Audit Commission on practical tools for elected members and senior officers, including sets of questions “designed to help members and senior officers consider whether they have all of the information they need to take a decision”.

Links to the report and practical tools:

• Summary report and Full report
• Self assessment framework
• Resources for elected members 
• Analyst diary
• Resource mapping tool
• Decision making guides
• Links to training and support

Tom Smith, OCSI.

Our work assesses indicators of social exclusion for older people in rural areas, including outputs from the Planning4care Social Care Commissioning tool. Key findings include:

• Rural areas have an older age profile and are ageing faster than other areas of the country: It is well known that rural areas are typically older than the average, with rural residents on average 6 years older than in urban areas. However, the population aged 65 and over is also projected to increase significantly faster than in urban areas - increasing the pressure on services such as social care for older people in rural areas.
• Although deprivation levels on average in rural areas are low, there is a great deal of ‘hidden’ deprivation:  Based on the government’s Index of Multiple Deprivation, only 1% of all deprived areas are rural. But based on individual-level data, the ‘rural share’ of deprivation is much greater - for example, of all people of working-age receiving DWP benefits 16% (or 280,000 people) live in rural areas. In other words, the ‘rural share’ of deprivation in terms of people (16% of all working-age people receiving benefits in England live in rural areas), is substantially larger than might be expected from analysis of the most deprived small areas (where only 1% of deprived areas in England are rural).
• Social care needs in rural areas are significant, and projected to grow faster than the average across England: Based on Planning4care analysis, more than 550,000 older people in rural areas have some level of social care need, with 125,000 of these having very high levels of need. Based on population projections and future Healthy Life Expectancy scenarios, this may grow to as much as 930,000 by 2029 - an increase of 70%, well above increases in urban areas. This in turn will place increased pressure on service costs and provision, again well above likely increases in urban areas. For example, based on current typical care packages, the total costs of providing publicly funded social care provision to older people in rural areas would be expected to increase by two-thirds, to £50M per week (in today’s money).
• Areas in East Midlands and the East of England show the greatest expected increases in older people over the next 20 years: At local level, the over-65 population is projected to nearly double over the next 20 years in some areas, with much greater increases in the oldest age-groups. Local Authorities with the largest growth in numbers of older people are likely to face a very significant increase in demand for social care provision and other services for older people.

See the full OCSI Mapping the level of need: Assessing the social exclusion of older people in rural areas report for more detail.

Follow these links for more information on our analysis of deprivation in rural areas, and the Planning4care social care strategic commissioning tool.